Author: Valiev, Oybek; Ergashov, Ziyodullo

Annotation: This study examines the structural transformation of foreign trade in Kashkadarya (Qashqadaryo) Region, Uzbekistan, over the period 2010 – 2025, utilising annual panel data on trade turnover, commodity composition, geographic distribution, and balance-of-payments indicators. The empirical findings reveal three interconnected phases of transformation. In Phase I (2010–2015), the region’s export profile was dominated by cotton fibre, which accounted for 64.9 per cent of exports in 2010, alongside chemical products (20.4%) and energy resources (6.2%). Phase II (2016 – 2020) marked a period of structural disruption: the abolition of the state cotton procurement monopoly led to the complete elimination of raw cotton fibre from the export basket by 2021, prompting a diversification towards food products, textiles, and energy exports. Phase III (2021–2025) demonstrates a successful, though uneven, transition towards value-added manufactures, with textiles and textile products capturing 53 per cent of exports in 2023, energy and petroleum products rising to 33.3 per cent in 2024, and total trade turnover reaching a record USD 1.24 billion (preliminary) by end - 2025. Import structure remained persistently capital-goods-intensive, with machinery and equipment consistently accounting for 60–88 per cent of imports, reflecting sustained investment demand. Geographic reorientation was equally pronounced: the CIS countries’ share of total trade fell from 72.2 per cent (2010) to 14.0 per cent (2024), while non-CIS partners–especially China, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and European markets–gained dominance. The study contributes region-specific longitudinal evidence to the broader discourse on trade policy reform and economic transformation in post-Soviet Central Asian economies.

Keywords: foreign trade; structural transformation; Kashkadarya region; Uzbekistan; export diversification; trade balance; panel data

Pages in journal: 604 - 618