Author: Zhang, Ru; Wang, Jingjing; Zulayati, Kuerban

Annotation: Based on UN COMTRADE data from 2018 to 2024, this paper uses the trade specialization index and the constant market share (CMS) model to systematically analyze the competitive landscape and export growth drivers of agricultural trade between China and Uzbekistan. The study shows that China-Uzbekistan agricultural trade exhibits significant complementarity: China has competitive advantages in aquatic products and processed horticultural products, while Uzbekistan's core export strengths lie in horticultural products and non-food livestock products. CMS decomposition results indicate that in Uzbekistan's export growth to China, the 'growth effect' driven by the expansion of Chinese market demand accounts for 48.8%, the structural effect contributes 24.7%, and the competitiveness effect accounts for 18.8%. Further analysis shows that Uzbekistan's enhancement of competitiveness in categories such as horticultural products is key to boosting exports, but market losses and structural mismatches in bulk agricultural products limit overall performance. Finally, the paper proposes policy recommendations in areas such as deepening agricultural cooperation, optimizing trade facilitation, expanding product category structures, and strengthening brand building, to promote the high-quality development of China-Uzbekistan agricultural trade and deepen regional agricultural cooperation.

Keywords: China-Uruguay agricultural product trade; trade competitiveness; constant market share model; growth effect; structural effect; trade complementarity; policy recommendations

Pages in journal: 682 - 691